Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), whose meteoric rise to fame in The Republican Party earned him the informal title of GOP heir-apparent, is seeing his momentum slow just as the presidential primary season begins in earnest. 

Every public poll tracking the Republican primary horserace over the last two months points to the same trend: DeSantis is losing ground, while Trump is gaining. 

Analyst Nate Cohn chalks up DeSantis’s decline to a combination of three factors. First, the midterms — i.e., DeSantis’s landslide win and the underperformance of Trump-backed candidates — have moved further in the rearview. Second, Trump is going on the offense, attacking DeSantis’s record and deploying opposition research. And lastly, DeSantis is standing on the sidelines, not mounting a defense or firing back against Trump. 

While these factors do lend an explanation to DeSantis’s deterioration, I would argue that Ron DeSantis actually has a much larger problem with his own positioning that has come to light recently, which threatens to derail his presidential ambitions. 

That is, DeSantis is trying to straddle the two opposing worldviews that exist within The Republican Party. On one hand, he is courting the establishment figures who would welcome a return to pre-Trump party politics. On the other, he is working to appeal to the party’s far-right populist wing, many of whom are Trump loyalists and will likely be further emboldened to rally around the former president if, as reports suggest, Trump is indicted this week. 

The latest public criticisms DeSantis has faced underscore how difficult of a balancing act this is. Last week, as Trump was railing against DeSantis for being part of the old GOP establishment à la Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), prominent mainstream Republicans were criticizing the Florida governor for his Trump-esque isolationist positions on the war in Ukraine, which DeSantis had labeled a “territorial dispute,” rather than a vital U.S. interest. 

To be sure, DeSantis has yet to formally declare his candidacy, and elections are still one year away. But at this point, it is difficult to envision any candidate, including DeSantis, being able to cut into a significant share of Trump’s support among the far-right populist wing, while also maintaining the favor of the party establishment. 

Moreover, the core distinction DeSantis has implicitly drawn between himself and Trump — i.e., that he can win the general election against Biden, while Trump can’t — doesn’t appear to be resonating with GOP voters, hence Trump’s strength. Most Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they will support the candidate who agrees with their views on major issues (59 percent), rather than the candidate who has the strongest chance of beating Joe Biden (41 percent), per the latest CNN/SSRS poll. 

In an effort to win over the far-right, DeSantis has allowed — if not facilitated — his campaign to move further out of the mainstream during Florida’s current legislative session. The legislature has advanced a 6-week abortion ban, which is far more restrictive than the state’s current 15-week rule, and DeSantis recently endorsed the open carry of handguns without a permit. 

DeSantis is clearly reasoning that this will allow him to consolidate support on the far-right — yet, it is just as likely that he will dissuade the more moderate Republicans he is courting, who could defect to one of the other mainstream candidates. 

Despite these challenges, the attention Trump has paid to DeSantis suggests that he views the Florida governor as a formidable threat. This is still a valid assessment, considering DeSantis’s popularity in his home state, his rising star within the party and his success courting big-money donors, including many who once backed Trump. 

There are also signs that Trump could be struggling in the all-important first primary state of Iowa. A recent poll there finds that, while both candidates are viewed very favorably by Republicans, Trump’s unfavorable numbers rose 11-points over the past two years, and the percentage of Iowa Republicans who said they would “definitely” vote for Trump has dropped 20 percent during the same time. 

In a transparent effort to overshadow his ex-protégé, Trump visited Iowa just three days after DeSantis made his debut there. The candidates’ dueling visits, which offered voters the first side-by-side comparison of the two men, revealed a sharp stylistic divide. 

Though DeSantis was met with a warm reception in Davenport, his event was tightly scripted and heavy on policy, and he did little retail politicking on the trip, giving what essentially amounted to a stump speech. Speaking to a smaller crowd, he stuck to his now-customary anti-woke talking points and touted his winning record in Florida, never mentioning Trump or the criticisms he has leveled. 

Drawing an implicit contrast to DeSantis’ buttoned-up event, Trump’s trip was quintessential, well, Trump. His energy was combative and high-spirited, reminiscent in many ways of his infamous 2016 campaign when his charisma on the campaign trail propelled him to win the nomination. 

Trump stopped to greet patrons at a local restaurant before his speech to over 3,000 people, which he bookended by taking live questions from attendees. In classic Trump fashion, he ad-libbed his speech, bragged about his record, played to the audience, and went heavy on the personal insults of DeSantis. 

While some of Trump’s attacks — i.e., dubbing DeSantis Ron “De-Sanctimonious” and mocking his smaller crowd sizes — likely won’t dissuade potential DeSantis supporters, others could be particularly harmful if they continue to go uncontested. Trump disparaged DeSantis for being disloyal to the MAGA movement, knocked his support for cutting ethanol production (a key agriculture issue in Iowa), and repeatedly decried him for wanting to “decimate” Social Security and Medicare. 

It is important to note that DeSantis would not necessarily benefit — and in fact, could suffer, as many Republicans did during the 2016 campaign — from leveling personal attacks against Trump. That being said, there is a clear risk to DeSantis not engaging at all, as Cohn noted, especially when he is being attacked for favoring cutting entitlements that the broad majority of Republican voters (59 percent)support. 

DeSantis ultimately has two interrelated problems; a positioning problem and a Trump problem. The Florida governor is caught in the crossfire between the two competing factions of the Republican Party, and at the same time, is struggling to distinguish himself from Trump and deflect his relentless attacks.  

There is always a chance that DeSantis will be able to overcome these challenges and carve out a coalition as the campaign progresses. But in all likelihood, he will create room for other non-Trump candidates to ascend, which in the end will translate into a victory for Donald Trump.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is:  “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”  

Kevin McCarthy has called on Americans not to protest if Donald Trump is arrested as part of a grand jury investigation into his alleged role in hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels.

Mr Trump has claimed he will be arrested on Tuesday and called for protests to “take our nation back” in language that drew comparisons to his rhetoric leading up to the January 6 Capitol riots.

House majority leader Mr McCarthy responded to Mr Trump’s call on Sunday, saying: “I don’t think people should protest this stuff.”

It comes as a one-time ally turned critic of Michael Cohen – Manhattan prosecutors’ star witness in the case – will testify before the grand jury today.

Robert Costello, who once worked as a legal adviser to Cohen, told CNN he will appear before the grand jury at the request of the former president’s legal team. He is expected to cast doubts on Cohen’s credibility.

Cohen also revealed he was asked to appear as a possible rebuttal witness.

It is not clear if the pair will be the final witnesses before the grand jury votes on whether to criminally indict Mr Trump.

Celebrities from across the world of culture have reacted to the latest news concerning former US president Donald Trump.

On Saturday (18 March), Trump claimed on his Truth Social page that he will be arrested on Tuesday.

In an incendiary all-caps post, Trump took aim at a “corrupt and highly political Manhattan district attorney’s office”, and called for protests to “take our nation back”.

Charges are expected to be brought against Trump over a hush money payment made to adult film actor Stormy Daniels before his election to office in 2016.

You can keep up to date with the latest developments on the story here.

Among those to react to the news were novelist Stephen King, and filmmaker and actor Rob Reiner.

“Donald Trump is a sociopath and a criminal,” wrote King. “To let him near the nuclear codes again would be insane.”

“When Donald Trump became the Republican nominee for president in 2016, I joined Twitter. I wanted to speak out against a man I knew to be a Pathologically Lying Misogynistic Racist who was and is an existential danger to our Democracy,” wrote Reiner.

“The elimination of this scourge is upon US.”

Star Trek star George Takei wrote: “ Seeking justice for crimes that Trump committed is not political vengeance. No one is above the law.

“If powerful people committed criminal acts, they should answer for them like anyone else. Do you disagree?”

Twitter CEO Elon Musk has claimed that Trump will win “in a landslide” if he is indicted.

A spokesperson for Mr Trump, meanwhile, stated: “There has been no notification, other than illegal leaks from the Justice Dept. and the DA’s office, to NBC and other fake news carriers, that the George Soros-funded Radical Left Democrat prosecutor in Manhattan has decided to take his Witch-Hunt to the next level.

“President Trump is rightfully highlighting his innocence and the weaponisation of our injustice system. He will be in Texas next weekend for a giant rally. Make America Great Again!”

As Donald Trump runs again for the White House, he’s dogged by four criminal investigations that have gained momentum, including two focused on Trump’s zealous drive to overturn his 2020 election loss, raising the odds he will face charges in one or more inquiries in coming weeks or months, say former federal prosecutors.

All four inquiries have accelerated in recent months with numerous subpoenas to close Trump associates and testimony by key witnesses before grand juries in Washington DC, Georgia and New York, that pose growing legal threats to Trump, plus several of his ex-lawyers and allies.

Two investigations are homing in on Trump’s nonstop efforts to thwart his 2020 election loss with bogus fraud charges, while others are looking into Trump’s retention of hundreds of classified documents post his presidency, and Trump’s role in a $130,000 hush money payment in 2016 to porn star Stormy Daniels with whom he allegedly had an affair.

An indictment of Trump in the Daniels hush money case could even come within days. Trump’s fears over the issue even prompted him to post on social media about being arrested this week in New York, triggering a flood of Republicans to issue statements of support despite Trump calling for protests against any such move.

The four inquiries have been examining separately whether Trump violated several laws including obstruction of an official proceeding and defrauding the United States by his actions to overturn the 2020 election, and breaking other statutes.

The multiple investigations of Trump, two of which are being led by justice department special counsel Jack Smith, are unparalleled for an ex president – especially as he seeks the White House again, say ex-prosecutors.

“It seems quite possible, or even likely, that Trump will be defending himself in four different criminal cases as he is campaigning for president in 2024,” said Barbara McQuade, former US attorney for eastern Michigan. “Making court appearances in New York, Georgia, Florida and Washington DC while also maintaining a campaign schedule may prove to be a daunting task.”

McQuade added: “Trump, no doubt, will use criminal charges as a fundraising tool and as a way to portray himself as the eternal victim. On some level, he may relish the spectacle of it all, but it seems likely that accountability is headed his way.”

Other ex-prosecutors say Trump’s legal travails are unique for a presidential candidate.

“The sheer number and diversity of criminal investigations of Trump’s conduct are totally unprecedented for a major candidate in modern times,” said Dan Richman, a Columbia University law professor and ex-prosecutor in New York southern district.

The criminal inquiry by the Fulton county district attorney, Fani Willis, into Trump’s efforts to reverse his 2020 defeat in Georgia with his high-pressure call to the secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, on 2 January 2021 asking him to “find 11,780 votes”, and other calls, is expected to bring charges against him and some close allies in coming months, say ex-prosecutors.

In late January, Willis said a special grand jury had completed a seven-month inquiry involving interviews with 75 witnesses in her investigation which reportedly had at least 17 targets, including Trump and his former personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani.

A number of indictments have reportedly been recommended by the special grand jury, and Willis has said a decision is “imminent” about convening a regular grand jury that Georgia law requires before she brings any charges.

Separately, Smith’s inquiry into Trump’s drive to thwart Joe Biden’s election seems to be in its late stages, in light of subpoenas this year to former vice-president Mike Pence and Trump’s former chief of staff Mark Meadows, both potentially key witnesses to Trump’s drive to block Biden from taking office. Ex-prosecutors say Meadows is a subject of the investigation.

Those subpoenas “show that the January 6 investigation is serious and narrowing,” said Paul Pelletier, former acting chief of the justice department’s fraud section.

Smith has secured grand jury testimony from other key figures including Pence’s former top aide Marc Short and his former chief counsel Greg Jacob, plus former White House counsel Pat Cipollone as part of his inquiry into whether Trump’s actions before and during 6 January 2021 violated an official proceeding and defrauded the government.

On another legal front, Smith has also been leading a wide ranging inquiry into Trump’s retention of hundreds of classified documents at Mar a Lago after he left the White House, a potential violation of three laws – the Presidential Records Act, obstruction and the Espionage Act.

Meanwhile, a grand jury convened by the Manhattan district attorney, Alvin Bragg, to look into Trump’s alleged arranging hush money payments of $130,000 via his ex-lawyer Michael Cohen to Daniels in 2016, heard testimony from Cohen this week.

Last week, Trump declined an invitation by the DA’s office to testify, a sign reportedly that he could soon be indicted.

Trump has blasted all the investigations as politically motivated and said he’s done nothing illegal, decrying Smith’s appointment as “part of a never ending witch-hunt”.

But ex-prosecutors see huge legal headaches ahead for Trump, and probable charges at least in the Georgia invsstigation.

“With the Manhattan DA now presenting evidence to a grand jury, Trump now faces four credible criminal investigations – unprecedented for the most hardened criminals, never mind a former president who is seeking to enter the White House again,” Pelletier said.

“Of all the investigations, Georgia appears likely to bring the most serious charges imminently against Trump. The Mar-a-Lago document investigation has picked up speed, but, frustratingly, appears to be on a more cautious and deliberate track.”

Other former federal prosecutors see strong signs that in Georgia charges against Trump, and some of his top lawyers and allies are coming.

“There is little doubt that a number of indictments are on the horizon in Georgia. My sense is that the Fulton county DA is putting the final touches on bringing Rico [racketeering] charges involving Trump and others” said former US attorney Michael Moore, of Georgia.

“Trump will surely be the main player, and I expect to see some well-known names in upcoming indictments,” adding that Trump, as well as Meadows and Giuliani “are likely to each see more of the inside of a courtroom than any of them might like”.

Trump has dubbed his call to Raffensperger as “perfect”.

Moore noted: “There will be an unavoidable overlap of efforts by the Fulton DA and the special counsel. The efforts to overturn the 2020 election had both state and federal implications even while dealing with the same facts.

“The ability of the special counsel to delve into conduct across many jurisdictions may prove especially useful when looking at the efforts to string together the fake electors schemes in multiple states,” referring to a scheme the justice department has focused on involving efforts by Giuliani and others to replace electors in key states Biden won with Trump electors.

Other ex-prosecutors note significant overlap between the Georgia probe investigation and the special counsel’s, both of which threaten Trump, Giuliani, ex-Trump lawyer John Eastman and others.

“While Trump’s calls to Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and other Georgia state officials appear to be at the center of the Fulton county DA’s probe, that investigation likely extends to efforts by Trump’s legal team, including Rudy Giuliani, to convince Georgia legislators to overturn the election results,” said Richman.

“Yet the legal team’s nationwide efforts by Giuliani, Eastman and others – encouraged by Trump to an extent that will need to be clarified – to present slates of phony electors to Congress and to otherwise disrupt the electoral certification also seems to be at the heart of one prong of Jack Smith’s federal investigation.”

Not surprisingly, Trump’s legal expenses to fend off these investigations and other legal headaches involving personal and corporate matters have been hefty.

According to federal records, Trump spent about $10m last year out of his political action committee to pay law firms representing him in the four criminal inquiries, plus cases involving the Trump Organization and lawsuits.

Those costs will surely mount for Trump as the investigations ratchet up subpoenas of top former Trump allies to build their cases before grand juries, as Smith has been doing in the two inquiries he’s spearheading.

“Prosecutors tend to conduct investigations in concentric circles, starting at the outer edges and then progressing ever inward with the target at the center,” McQuade said. “They want to arm themselves with as much information as possible when they question those who are closest to the target. Now that Smith is serving subpoenas on Meadows and Pence, it seems that he has entered the final circle of his investigation.”

Little wonder that as Trump runs for the White House again, quite a few Republicans are feeling very edgy.

“It does not bode well for the Republican party if Trump should be indicted and win the nomination,” said former Pennsylvania Republican congressman Charlie Dent. “The electoral outcome would be disastrous for the GOP. How much losing can we take?”